TerminalLAGGARD
us tech · NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
$212.17+1.21 (+0.57%)
earnings n/apending
Synthesis · NVDA
tier MOD
SHORT
3/4 lanes aligned
3/4 lanes bearish. ATR-sized stop · R:R 2.3.
Entry
$212.17
Stop
$223.47
TP1
$197.11
TP2
$185.81
buy conviction
D · 21Avoid: evidence does not support a long here.
confirmation checklist
2/8 passing
- Trend stack (price > EMA20 > EMA50)212.17 / 218.41 / 214.40
- At or near 20d breakout20d high 234.76 · trigger 235.51
- RSI in power zone (50-72)RSI 45
- Volume confirmation (>1.1x 20d)0.67x
- Macro backdrop not hostileMacro BEAR
- Stop risk under 6% of price5.33% ATR stop
- No earnings inside 7 sessionsdate unknown
- Sector outperforming SPY (20d)SMH -6.8pp · #7/7
Buy trigger
$235.51
20d high
$234.76
20d low
$207.25
Invalidation
$206.50
distance to trigger +11.00% · atr stop risk 5.33%
position sizer · paper only
Entry
$212.17
Stop
$223.47
Shares
22
Notional
$4668
Risking $250.00 ($11.30/share). Educational sizing — paper trading only.
sector context
Semiconductors · SMH
rank #7 of 7
20d
-8.75%
60d
-17.85%
vs SPY 20d
-6.77pp
sector relative strength · 20d vs SPY
leaders first
- #1WCLDCloud / SaaS+5.5ppLEADER
- #2IGVSoftware+5.5ppLEADER
- #3CIBRCybersecurity+5.3ppLEADER
- #4XLCInternet / Comm+4.9ppINLINE
- #5XLKMega-cap Tech-1.5ppLAGGARD
- #6XLYConsumer Discretionary-3.1ppLAGGARD
- #7SMHSemiconductors-6.8ppLAGGARD
TTechnical lane
EMA structure, RSI regime, trend integrity
BULL
tier MOD
- EMA20 > EMA50 (218.41 > 214.40)
- Price above SMA200
- RSI 45
FFlow lane
Volume vs. 20d avg, momentum footprint
BEAR
tier MOD
- Vol 0.67x 20d avg
- 5d momentum -6.0%
NNarrative lane
Relative strength, sector tailwinds
BEAR
tier MOD
- 20d relative perf -5.7%
- AI capex tailwind narrative
MMacro lane
DXY, VIX, 10Y yields, NDX regime
BEAR
tier MOD
- VIX 17.1
- DXY 0.00%
- 10Y +0.71%
- NDX -0.65%
Educational tool. Not investment advice. Data provided by Finnhub API.