TerminalLAGGARD
us tech · MSFT
Microsoft Corp.
$497.12-8.29 (-1.64%)
earnings n/apending
Synthesis · MSFT
tier LOW
STAND ASIDE
1/4 lanes aligned
Lanes disagree (1 bull / 1 bear). No high-conviction MSFT setup.
buy conviction
D · 34Avoid: evidence does not support a long here.
confirmation checklist
4/8 passing
- Trend stack (price > EMA20 > EMA50)497.12 / 493.02 / 467.71
- At or near 20d breakout20d high 517.78 · trigger 518.84
- RSI in power zone (50-72)RSI 56
- Volume confirmation (>1.1x 20d)0.86x
- Macro backdrop not hostileMacro BEAR
- Stop risk under 6% of price3.21% ATR stop
- No earnings inside 7 sessionsdate unknown
- Sector outperforming SPY (20d)XLK -1.5pp · #5/7
Buy trigger
$518.84
20d high
$517.78
20d low
$477.15
Invalidation
$476.09
distance to trigger +4.37% · atr stop risk 3.21%
position sizer · paper only
Entry
$518.84
Stop
$502.89
Shares
15
Notional
$7783
Risking $250.00 ($15.95/share). Educational sizing — paper trading only.
sector context
Mega-cap Tech · XLK
rank #5 of 7
20d
-3.46%
60d
-4.02%
vs SPY 20d
-1.48pp
sector relative strength · 20d vs SPY
leaders first
- #1WCLDCloud / SaaS+5.5ppLEADER
- #2IGVSoftware+5.5ppLEADER
- #3CIBRCybersecurity+5.3ppLEADER
- #4XLCInternet / Comm+4.9ppINLINE
- #5XLKMega-cap Tech-1.5ppLAGGARD
- #6XLYConsumer Discretionary-3.1ppLAGGARD
- #7SMHSemiconductors-6.8ppLAGGARD
TTechnical lane
EMA structure, RSI regime, trend integrity
BULL
tier HIGH
- EMA20 > EMA50 (493.02 > 467.71)
- Price above SMA200
- RSI 56
FFlow lane
Volume vs. 20d avg, momentum footprint
NEUTRAL
tier LOW
- Vol 0.86x 20d avg
- 5d momentum 0.6%
NNarrative lane
Relative strength, sector tailwinds
NEUTRAL
tier LOW
- 20d relative perf 3.5%
- AI capex tailwind narrative
MMacro lane
DXY, VIX, 10Y yields, NDX regime
BEAR
tier MOD
- VIX 17.1
- DXY 0.00%
- 10Y +0.71%
- NDX -0.65%
Educational tool. Not investment advice. Data provided by Finnhub API.